Mid-season review....

We're halfway through the Big 12-4+2-1+1+1 season, so let's take a look back at my pre-season projections and see how close I was.

(in order of predicted finish from last to first, projections of out-of-conference and first four conference games):

10. KANSAS JAYHAWKS

I predicted the Jayhawks would be 2-5 on the season and 0-4 in conference play so far, and I'm dead on.  The boys from Lawrence actually played semi-inspired football against Oklahoma, but other than that they have been an absolute punching bag.  I like Turner Gill, and I think he gets one more season to try to work this out, but if they get blasted this weekend at Texas and then lose the following weekend to an equally bad Iowa State team, that seat could get extremely hot. I predicted that KU would not win another game the rest of the season, and I'll stick with my original instinct.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 0-5
Updated prediction: 0-5
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 2-10 (2-10)

*Interesting sidebar: In my pre-season prediction, I asked if you could name two players on the team. We're now 7 games into the season, and can you answer my question? Didn't think so.


9. IOWA STATE CYCLONES
I predicted the Cyclones would be 2-5 on the season and 0-4 in conference play so far, and I'm just one game off (they are 3-4 on the season; I had them losing to in-state rival Iowa). Steele Jantz was suppose to be the next "it" QB in the league, but has completely fizzled (an injured foot on an extremely mobile quarterback is a huge issue, admittedly). To top it all off, as it stands today the 'Clones last 3 games are all against teams currently inside the top 9 in the BCS Standings.....so......good luck with that.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 1-4
Updated prediction: 1-4
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 3-9 (4-8)

*Interesting sidebar: On August 5th, I said Paul Rhoads was a good coach. He is. I said Iowa State is not a good program. They're not. I are a genius.


8. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Yeah, um, I'll take my crow served warm with a side of stupid.  Thanks.  Wow, did ANYONE see this coming from the Fightin' Snyders??!! I thought the Wildcats would be 3-4 on the season and 1-3 in conference, and they're 7-0 and 4-0 with a huge home game against Oklahoma this weekend.  Impressive stuff, Bill. Impressive indeed....
...However, KSU's schedule is completely backloaded, so we're really going to find out what kind of squad this is over the last half of the season.  Games against Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, @ Texas in successive weeks = murderers row.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 2-3
Updated prediction: 1-4 (change win at Texas to loss)
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 5-7 (8-4)
*Interesting sidebar: Bill Snyder brought this program up from the doldrums his first go round. Who was I to doubt that he could do it again? Shame on me.


7. TEXAS LONGHORNS
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Shocking, really, to know that this juggernaut is 2 years removed from a perfect season and a shot at the national title, only to follow it up with the worst season for Texas football in the last 13+ years. At this point in the season, I had the Horns at 4-2 on the season and 1-2 in conference, and dang I'm getting good at this projection game. If you'll scroll down and read what I wrote about the UT season on August 5th, you'll see that I wrote the following about my expectations for Texas this year...

"They will start the season 4-0 and will move up to #10 in the polls because "They're Texas."  Will get blasted at the State Fair by the Sooners and then at home by the Pokes."
Excuse me while I take a moment to pat myself on the back for being EXACTLY right (ok, so they only got up to #11, but come on)

Does anyone outside of Austin see this team competing in the near future?

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 2-4
Updated prediction: 2-4 (change win vs. Tech to a loss; change loss to KSU to win)
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 6-6 (6-6)
*Interesting sidebar: They really should rename this conference the Bevo 10 or Bevo 12. The Athletic Director at Texas is DeLoss Dodds, and anyone with any knowledge of how this conference realignment and expansion has played out so far knows that the Big 12 is where it is today because of the arrogance and bullying coming out of Austin. And yet they'll still be 11-13 over the last 2 years.

6. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Signature win for Tommy Tuberville at Tech last weekend in Norman.  Absolutely impressive on any level. Oh and this is the same team that was down 20-0 to KANSAS a few weeks earlier. The Raiders also had Texas A&M and Kansas State within their sights, so the confidence has been growing for this team for a few weeks now, and culminated in the win against the Sooners. I had Tech at 4-3 and 2-2 at this point, and I was just one game off (they're 5-2 overall). Hot and cold is about as perfect a description for this team as possible. A fairly manageable rest-of-the-season could be interesting to watch in Lubbock.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 2-3
Updated prediction: 3-2 (change my prediction of a loss @ Texas to a win)
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 6-6 (8-4)

*Interesting sidebar: According to a recent survey in Lubbock, Mike Leach is still the most popular Red Raider over the last 10 years. He never sniffed a National Title, and Tommy Tuberville took Auburn through the SEC undefeated. People in Lubbock are sniffing too much of the dust in that town.

5.  BAYLOR BEARS

A Heisman-caliber quarterback with ridiculous numbers through the first half of the season combined with a defense that couldn't stop a Pop Warner offense.  Yup, that's Baylor football.  I had the Bears at 4-2 overall (which they are) and 2-1 in conference (they are 1-2), but I personally can't understand how a team who opens the season in a HUGE spotlight at home against TCU and wins an incredible game, then gets ranked as high as #16 in the polls STILL can't sell out a game at their own stadium.  RGIII deserves better than Baylor.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 3-3
Updated prediction: 4-2 (change loss to Missouri to win)
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 7-5 (8-4)

*Interesting sidebar: Robert Griffin III will return for his senior year, in my opinion. He actually already has his Bachelor's and will finish his Master's degree this December, and has openly spoke about his desire to attend Law School in Waco so he can play another year.  Great young man and wish him the best in the future.

4. MISSOURI TIGERS

The SEC-bound Tigers have a lot of work to do between now and when they move southeast (that's right, the Missouri Tigers will be in the Eastern Division of the SEC. Kudos to the geography minds). I thought the Tigers would be 5-2 overall and 2-2 in conference on the season, and they have disappointed bigtime.  Sporting a 3-4 record overall and 1-3 in conference, it's really going to be a toss-up to see how Mizzou finishes.  All of their games are winnable, and all but one of them (Kansas) are losable.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 3-2
Updated prediction: 2-3 (change win @ Baylor to loss)
Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 8-4 (5-7)

*Interesting sidebar: Does anyone else get the sense that Missouri is a lot like the character of Stitch in the movie "Lilo and Stitch"? In particular, the scene where Stitch is reading "The Ugly Duckling" in the middle of the woods and shouts out "I'm Lost!" Missouri wants out of the Big 12. The SEC doesn't REALLY want them, but it's the best option at the best price on the table right now for them. The Big 12 doesn't REALLY want them either, because they want schools that will bow to Texas and Oklahoma. "I'm Lost! I'm Lost!"

3. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

I had more than a couple "friends" tell me I was insane for thinking Oklahoma would lose ANY games this year, let alone the 2 I predicted they would lose (granted, I picked them to lose to Florida State and beat Texas Tech, so just flip-flop those). All loyalties aside, it was shocking to see them lose AT HOME to ANYONE, let alone Texas Tech, and the Sooners finally had all of their deficiencies exposed. I won't be surprised to see another loss or two for OU. I had them at 7-0 overall and 4-0 in conference, and they are now 6-1 and 3-1, respectively.  They could lose at Kansas State. They could lose at home to Texas A&M. They could lose at Oklahoma State. They could also win out. We'll see.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 4-1
Updated prediction: 3-2 (change win vs Texas A&M to loss)

Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 10-2 (9-3)

*Interesting sidebar: Could we potentially see a replay of the 2009 OU squad that was picked by many to win a national title only to finish the year 8-5 and in the Sun Bowl? Things that make you go "Hmm..."


2. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
I really had to just flip a coin in my pre-season predictions between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, and I couldn't have been more right.  A shocking first half in College Station where A&M looked the part of a National Title contender, followed by a second half of incredible resiliency by the Cowboys and they've never looked back. The final half of the season is going to be rocky and there is a potential for a loss every weekend, but something just feels different about Mike Gundy's squad this year.  I had them at 6-1 on the season and 3-1 in conference, and of course they're 7-0 and 4-0.  This is uncharted territory for OSU, I hope they are ready.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 5-0
Updated prediction: 5-0

Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 11-1 (12-0)

*Interesting sidebar: If the Cowboys win out, they WILL play for the National Title.  Bank it. And if they play against LSU or Alabama, true college football fans couldn't ask for a better matchup of a Top 3 offense vs. a Top 3 defense for all the marbles.

1. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

You know, looking back at my predictions, I was almost Vegas-esque in how I thought the Big 12 would shake out.  Although I had the Aggies at 7-0 overall (they're 5-2) and 4-0 (3-1) in league play, their two losses are by a combined 4 points to the current #3 and #9 teams in the BCS, both of which could have absolutely been wins. Similar to last year's squad, I think this team has gotten stronger over the last few weeks and is going to finish league play on a tear, although the end result will be a 2nd place finish in their last year in the conference.

Original last-half-of-the-conference-season prediction: 4-1
Updated prediction: 5-0 (change loss @ Oklahoma to win)

Overall pre-season prediction (updated season prediction): 11-1 (10-2)

*Interesting sidebar: Aggie QB Ryan Tannehill is the ONLY player in NCAA history to have 1,500 yds receiving and 2,000 passing.  Think about that for a minute. He was recruited out of high school as a QB; he was so athletically gifted that the coaches had to find a place for him on the field, and he was the leading receiver for A&M in 2009; he takes over halfway through the season and is now 10-3 as the starter in his career.  Bravo, Mr. Tannehill.


So here's how I see the conference standings looking at the end of the year:
1. OKLAHOMA STATE

2. TEXAS A&M

3. OKLAHOMA

4. KANSAS STATE

5. BAYLOR

6. TEXAS TECH

7. MISSOURI

8. TEXAS

9. IOWA STATE

10. KANSAS

GO POKES!!

The Future of the Big XII

Texas A&M is gone, Texas calls the shots in the league, and the future of the Big 12 is cloudy....that much is fact.

Everything else is speculation. Rumors swirl about teams that could be added to replace the departing/departed Aggies, with the names mentioned ranging from comical to realistic.  My opinion of a few of the teams:

1) NOTRE DAME
This one seems like the biggest name, simply because it's "sexy" and because, as I said, Texas calls the shots, and Notre Dame would bring the luster back to the Texas Conference (aka Beebe's Bumbling Bullcrap League).  First off, Notre Dame ain't leaving their independent status to join a league with unequal revenue sharing, period.  Add to the fact that Texas is in the league and would have as big or bigger piece of the money pie, and you can see Notre Dame telling Dan Beebe and DeLoss Dodds, "Yeah, umm....you two aren't the sharpest knives in the drawer, are you?"

Odds of it happening: 5,000:1

2) BRIGHAM YOUNG
I don't get this one either, other than I guess the Utah TV market?  The Mormon TV market? The Utah tv market is ranked in the low 30's in the country. There's less than 1,000,000 tv-equipped homes in the entire state. Somebody much smarter than me would have to explain the allure of adding BYU to the league.

Odds of it happening: 300:1

3) SMU
Finally one that makes logistical sense, but not monetary sense.  Texas already is huge in the Dallas market, and if A&M leaves for the SEC, Aggies in the Metroplex do nothing for the Big 12.  SMU has a small alumni base, small stadium, but are trying to get their athletics up to speed over the last few years.  The football team is MILES ahead of where they have been since '89's "death penalty" from the NCAA, but still....

Odds of it happening: 150: 1


So far, 2 that sound completely out of left field (but shallow left field, since we are talking about one school that calls the shots in the conference - Texas - and what they say, goes) and one school that doesn't bring in any substantial TV money.  Lately, I've heard Pittsburgh, Louisville, and even a play for Arkansas. 


HA!!

Pittsburgh isn't leaving the Big 10.  They can challenge in that conference in football and basketball every single year.  In the Big 12, they would be 7th or 8th in football but could possibly be the cream of the crop in basketball (only Kansas and Texas could out-recruit them). 

Louisville, could be an option, but I guess I just don't see the fit.  The would be the proverbial step-brother in the family.  Tolerated, can be entertaining, but unless someone brings up their name, you find yourself going "Oh yeah, I forgot you were here." 

Arkansas?  Next....not even going to give reason for why they would leave a conference that they get as much money as 'Bama, LSU, and Florida does, to be 3rd fiddle to Texas and Oklahoma.  The people of Arkansas get made fun of a lot, but they ain't THAT stupid.

Which brings us back to the original question: Who do they add that makes sense and makes the Texas Ten more money?  Do they add 1 team? 3 teams (to get back to 12)? Does OU and OSU agree that Texas is too powerful in the conference, and therefore head west to form the PAC-16 (in my opinion, if OU and OSU did that, the PAC-12 could add Boise State and BYU)

Poke Pass' Personal Preference for Probable Placement:

First - Add SMU, UofH, and UTEP.

EVERYONE OUT OF TEXAS DIVISION:

TEXAS DIVISON:

It's all just a stop-gap anyway.  I think once A&M officially leaves the Big 12, we are going to see The Big Eartquake in collegiate athletics, and I think it will last 4-5 years before everything is said and done and settled.  I see Texas going independent; Oklahoma and Oklahoma State going to PAC conference; Missouri going to Big 10 or SEC; Kansas and Kansas State going Big East; Baylor and Texas Tech going Conference USA or Mountain West; Iowa State going Conf. USA.

Just my $.02

Updated Predicted Standings

With the news out of Norman that LB Travis Lewis will miss ~8 weeks with a broken foot, I think it's much more likely that OU will lose their game @ Florida State, which would change their overall record to 10-2 by season's end. 

Injuries are part of football and I have no doubt OSU and A&M both will have their fair share of them, but losing a starting LB who is an unquestioned leader in Lewis after also losing another starting LB in Austin Box in a tragedy this summer, OU now has a pretty serious question at the position.  Corey Nelson should step in and be a good player (he was very highly touted coming out of high school and has gotten rave reviews by Stoops), but he's still only a true sophomore.

Just my $.02.

T-minus 30 days....

The 2011 season is just under one month away, and I thought I'd take some time to give my
Official $.02 Completely Accurate and Guaranteed Take-it-to-the-Bank-in-Las Vegas Predictions on how I think the season will go. 

So starting from the bottom (#10) and finishing with who I think will win the Big 12...er, Big 10...wait, who the hell can explain to me why a name change wasn't a good idea??!

Here we go, with each team's opponents listed and my prediction for a win or loss:

#10
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Predicted record: 2-10
Predicted bowl: none

McNeese State - W
Northern Illinois - W
@ Georgia Tech - L
Texas Tech - L
@ Oklahoma State - L
Oklahoma - L
Kansas State - L
@ Texas - L
@ Iowa State - L
Baylor - L
@ Texas A&M - L
Missouri - L

Quick, name 2 players on the KU team.  Can you even name the Head Coach?  Thought so.  When does basketball season start?





#9
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Predicted record: 3-9
Predicted bowl: none

Northern Iowa - W
Iowa - L
@ UConn - W
Texas - L
@ Baylor - L
@ Missouri - L
Texas A&M - L
@ Texas Tech - L
Kansas - W
Oklahoma State - L
@ Oklahoma - L
@ Kansas State - L

Paul Rhoads is a good coach.  Iowa State is not a good program. Next...





#8
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Predicted record: 5-7
Predicted bowl: none

Eastern Kentucky - W
Kent State - W
@ Miami, FL - L
Baylor - L
Missouri - L
@ Texas Tech - L
@ Kansas - W
Oklahoma - L
@ Oklahoma State - L
Texas A&M - L
@ Texas - W
Iowa State - W

Their best players are Tennessee's leftovers (the Brown brothers). Brutal trip to Coral Gables, and 3 straight against the teams picked to finish 1-2-3 in the league.  The second go-round for Bill Snyder isn't looking too rosy so far.





#7
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Predicted record: 6-6
Predicted bowl: Pinstripe

Rice - W
BYU - W
@ UCLA - W
@ Iowa State - W
Oklahoma (in Dallas) - L
Oklahoma State - L
Kansas - W
Texas Tech - W
@ Missouri - L
Kansas State - L
@ Texas A&M - L
@ Baylor - L

Count me in as one of the people who think last year was not an aberration for the Horns, but moreso a 3-4 year trend.  They will start the season 4-0 and will move up to #10 in the polls because "They're Texas."  Will get blasted at the State Fair by the Sooners and then at home by the Pokes.  A 6-2 start will quickly turn sour, much the same way last season did, and will have the Horns lose their last 4.  The Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, NY) will feel they hit the jackpot, because they will love to invite one of the nation's premier programs to the Big Apple and, well, because "They're Texas" and will face them against the hometown favorite Syracuse Orange.  And Texas will beat them by 40.





#6
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Predicted record: 6-6
Predicted bowl: Meineke Car Care

Texas State - W
@ New Mexico - W
Nevada - L
@ Kansas - W
Texas A&M - L
Kansas State - W
@ Oklahoma - L
Iowa State - W
@ Texas - L
Oklahoma State - L
@ Missouri - W
@ Baylor - L

Tech has a decent amount of talent, has recruited well the last several years, and has a good head coach in Tommy Tuberville (he took Auburn to an undefeated season in 2004).  They'll win their first two against a patsy schedule, and then I think they trade wins and losses for the next 7 games and finish 1-3 in their last 4.  They'll have enough wins to get to Houston for the bowl game, where they'll probably play Michigan. At least THAT would be entertaining!





#5
BAYLOR BEARS
Predicted record: 7-5
Predicted bowl: Holiday

TCU - L
Stephen F. Austin - W
Rice - W
@ Kansas State - W
Iowa State - W
@ Texas A&M - L
@ Oklahoma State - L
Missouri - L
@ Kansas - W
@ Oklahoma - L
Texas Tech - W
Texas - W

I think Art Briles and RGIII finally help the Bears break through...sort of.  For as bad as this program was for so long, 7-5 is a pretty decent goal for this team. Plus, the road schedule is just ROUGH (they play the projected 1-2-3 teams all on the road). They'll get a nice reward and a trip out to San Diego to play Arizona State, and the Holiday Bowl has earned a reputation as one of the must-watch bowl games over the last 8-10 years.





#4
MISSOURI TIGERS
Predicted record: 8-4
Predicted bowl: Alamo

Miami, OH - W
@ Arizona State - W
Western Illinois - W
@ Oklahoma - L
@ Kansas State - W
Iowa State - W
Oklahoma State - L
@ Texas A&M - L
@ Baylor - W
Texas - W
Texas Tech - L
Kansas - W

No one is talking about Gary Pinkel's squad.  Perfect opportunity for them to show up at the end of the year and have people saying "Hmm, I didn't know Missouri was actually THAT good after losing Blaine Gabbert." I think they lose to all three teams projected to finish 1-2-3 and then a surprise loss to Texas Tech for no other reason than because there's always a few of those every year where you watch College Football Live on Saturday night at midnight and go "How in the hell did Missouri lose to Tech?!"





#3
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Cotton

Tulsa - W
@ Florida State - W
Missouri - W
Ball State - W
Texas - W
@ Kansas - W
Texas Tech - W
@ Kansas State - W
Texas A&M - W
@ Baylor - W
Iowa State - W
@ Oklahoma State - L

They'll impress the world with a big win at #5 Florida State in the second week of the season (FSU is good, but they're incredibly overrated and still a year away. If this game was played next year in Tallahassee, I would change my prediction) They'll throttle Texas and beat up on the weaker teams in the league.  They'll impress everyone again when they beat a very good A&M team in a showcase game on Saturday night on ABC. Of the top 3 teams I have projected, their schedule is the easiest (toughest conference road game outside of Stillwater is....Waco??). I think they are #1 or #2 when they come to Stillwater on Thanksgiving weekend....and I think an 11-1 Oklahoma team ranked inside the top 5 or 6 of the computers will get left out of the BCS (only 2 teams from a conference can play in a BCS bowl)





#2
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: BCS (Sugar)

Louisiana-Lafayette - W
Arizona - W
@ Tulsa - W
@ Texas A&M - L
Kansas - W
@ Texas - W
@ Missouri - W
Baylor - W
Kansas State - W
@ Texas Tech - W
@ Iowa State - W
Oklahoma - W

This is tough, picking my Pokes to not win the Big 12.  But realistically, the road schedule is just too tough and although I think they'll only lose 1 game, I think that game will be to a team the BCS computers will have just barely ahead of them at season's end.  I think the game in College Station could be another thriller similar to last year's epic battle at Lewis Field, and I expect an 8-game winning streak to end the season, culminated with a thrilling Bedlam victory over the Sooners and a trip to Na'wlins for the Sugar Bowl against probably LSU and The Mad Hatter (and former OSU coach) Les Miles.





#1
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: BCS (Fiesta)

SMU - W
Idaho - W
Oklahoma State - W
Arkansas - W
@ Texas Tech - W
Baylor - W
@ Iowa State - W
Missouri - W
@ Oklahoma - L
@ Kansas State - W
Kansas - W
Texas - W

This is a tough call and could go a number of different ways, but I think A&M finally steps up to the expectations and inches closer to joining the elite programs of college football (if you want to argue with me why I think they could join such a distinct group of powerhouses, I'd be more than happy to provide evidence and engage in discussion).  They will be 8-0 going to Norman, but won't be able to break through just yet there, where they haven't won since 1997. Will win the Big 12 because to the computers, the A&M loss @ Oklahoma will look better than the Oklahoma State loss @ A&M.  A trip to Tempe for the Fiesta Bowl probably against Oregon or Wisconsin.

And if you're curious as to who I have playing in the National Title game on January 9th in the Big Easy....

#1 Alabama
#2 Boise State

The fun is about to begin, my fellow Brethren of Bullet!

(Just Past) Halfway Point in Big 12 season

Every team in the league has now played at least 8 games, with 6 of the teams having played 9.  A review of the current standings and where I thought each team would be, based on my Quarter-Season Review :

1. Texas Longhorns 8-0 (regular season prediction: 6)
Texas is, in my opinion, one of the two or three best teams in the country at this point.  After the win at Kansas, they have ripped off big wins against OSU and Texas A&M on the road, and sandwiched a home win against Top 20 ranked Missouri.
Next 4: @ Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska
Predicted record after 12 games: 11-1 (#1)



2. Kansas Jayhawks 7-1 (regular season prediction: 1)
After the loss to Texas, Kansas has rebounded nicely and has solid wins at Colorado, Texas Tech and Nebraska and a home win against Kansas State.  Ranked 2nd in the country by both major polls, I still think this is the best overall team in the league and still hold to my prediction they will finish the season as the best team in the Big 12.
Next 4: Missouri, Iowa State, @ Kansas State, Colorado
Predicted record after 12 games: 11-1 (#2)

3. Baylor Bears 5-4 (regular season prediction: 5)
Still a completely Jekyll-and-Hyde team.  Lose at Oklahoma; beat Texas A&M in the road.  Huh??  Should finish in the 3-6 range in the conference.
Next 3: Nebraska, @ Texas, Texas Tech
Predicted record after 12 games: 7-5 (#3)

4. Texas A&M Aggies 4-4 (regular season prediction: 4)
The Aggies are on their first 3-game losing streak in 2 years. It could reach 4 before the bleeding stops.
Next 4: @ Colorado, @ Texas Tech, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State
Predicted record after 12 games: 7-5 (#4)

5. Missouri Tigers 4-4 (regular season prediction: 2)
Busted up by Texas and then beat by the Pokes, Missouri is in a little bit of limbo right now. The next 4 games will be a good stretch for them to get back in the conference race.
Next 4: @ Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State
Predicted record after 12 games: 7-5 (#5)

6. Oklahoma Sooners 4-4 (regular season prediction: 11)
Up and down, up and down.  I have no idea about this team.  They're really not good enough to finish any higher than 10th in the league, but could conceivably finish in the top 5.  Go figure.
Next 4: Texas, @ Missouri, Nebraska, @ Kansas State
Predicted record after 12 games: 5-7 (#8)

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-5 (regular season prediction: 7)
Road wins are hard to get in this league.  Period.  Case in point?  Blown out at Baylor, beat an even better Missouri team at home.  That is the story of this conference.
Next 3: @ Nebraska, @ Texas, Texas A&M
Predicted record after 12 games: 5-7 (#7)

8. Kansas State Wildcats 4-5 (regular season prediction: 3)
They may finally be finding themselves.  Only losses in last 5 games were to #10 and #2 ranked national teams on the road.  Big stretch of opportunity coming up for the 'Cats.
Next 3: @ Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma
Predicted record after 12 games: 6-6 (#6)

9. Colorado Buffaloes 4-5 (regular season prediction: 9)
Started 3-1 in conference, then went 1-4.  Next 3 games could be even worse.
Next 3: Texas A&M, Kansas State, @ Kansas
Predicted record after 12 games: 4-8 (#9)

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-5 (regular season prediction: 12)
Doc Sadler is a good coach, however, Nebraska will never be a good basketball school.  Maybe they'll have better luck in the Big 10?
Next 4: @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma, Texas
Predicted record after 12 games: 4-8 (#10)

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-6 (regular season prediction: 10)
I had them being 0-8 at this point, so at least I'll eat a little crow on that.  This is still a bad team with only one decent player in Mike Singletary.
Next 3: Texas A&M, @ Missouri, @ Baylor
Predicted record after 12 games: 3-9 (#11)

12. Iowa State Cyclones 1-8 (regular season prediction: 8)
Currently on a 6-game losing streak, and just NOW coming into the meat of their schedule.  Yikes.
Next 3: @ Kansas, @ Texas A&M, Missouri
Predicted record after 12 games: 1-11 (#12)




The Big 12 is starting to shape up the way many thought it would, with a few wrinkles thrown in just to keep it interesting.  I don't think anyone, yours truly included, thought Texas would be this good, especially defensively.  The Longhorns have never been known as a defense-first team, but have proven to be a force so far.  Kansas is still Kansas, just as capable of winning the National Title as losing in the first round.  Hopefully OSU can pull out a win or two against a team I don't expect them to.  They're going to need to do so in order to finish even at 8-8, which is what I predicted for them originally.

GO POKES!!

National Signing Day



RB Herschel Sims



QB J.W. Walsh



The Cowboys had a fantasic National Signing Day, evidenced by their #21 ranking on the ESPNU scale.  The day had a little more drama than the Pokes would have liked, as they waited on the LOI for RB Herschel Sims to get to Coach Mike Gundy (it seems the 5-star RB had a power outage in his high school and couldn't get in touch with OSU for a short time).  Nonetheless, Sims' letter is in, as is 4-star QB J.W. Walsh's, who has been compared to former QB Zac Robinson but with a better arm.  Although these two recruits are the stars of the class, the Cowboys leaned heavily towards recruiting on the defensive side of the ball, with 16 of the 26 signings slated to play D for Bill Young's unit.

The Top 10 Recruiting classes look as follows, according to Rivals.com:
1. Alabama (2009 National Champion)
2. Auburn (2010 National Champion)
3. Florida State

4. USC (2004 National Champion)

5. Texas (2005 National Champion)

6. Georgia 

7. LSU (2003, 2007 National Champion)

8. Clemson

9. Notre Dame

10. Ohio State (2002 National Champion)

Other Big 12 notables:

16. Oklahoma

19. Texas Tech

32. Texas A&M

33. Kansas

44. Missouri
47. Baylor

The SEC retains it's title of King of All Conferences, as 4 of the Top 7 (and 9 of the Top 25) recruiting rankings belong to teams within the power conference.  The Big 12-2 and Big 10+2 each have 3 such teams in the Top 25, according to Rivals; the Pac-12 has 5. 

Notes of Interest:
* Oklahoma has it's lowest ranking in the last 10 years. 
* After finishing with their best season since 2004, Texas A&M still doesn't crack the Top 30, even with in-state rival and national power Texas having their worst season since 1997.  Even more salt-in-the-wound is the annoying pest that is Texas Tech finished with a substantially higher ranking than the Aggies.
* The Top 10 teams in recruiting for 2011 have won a combined 7 of the last 10 BCS National Titles (the other 3 are Florida in 2006 and 2008, and Miami in 2001)

A final thought: Recruiting and rankings have become "big business" in the last decade, with many being of the opinion that recruiting rankings bear no factor towards how they will actually play at the college level.  While this is true to an extent (and frankly, is true in any career/job/opportunity), take a look at the last 5 years of recruiting rankings and compare that to the teams you usually think of when considering the "Top Programs in the Country".

2006:
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Florida State

2007:
1. Florida
2. USC
3. Tennessee

2008:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Florida

2009:
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Ohio State

2010:
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Texas

Easy to see that the rankings generally do hold true to form, as the teams that have been in the Top 3 of recruiting are usually some of the top on-field programs in college football.  Here's hoping this class catapaults the Cowboys to further success in the new Big 12-2.

GO POKES!!

Another Blown Opportunity

AP photo

What's going on with this Cowboys basketball team?  Without something "clicking" in the collective minds of the Pokes - and in the immediate future - this team could end up at the bottom of the Big 12.  As it stands now, OSU is 2-5 and that's with an amazing comeback win against Iowa State at home a week ago, or this team would be 1-6 and dead last in the conference.  It's not going to get any easier, as an angry Missouri Tigers team comes to GIA on Wednesday after being embarrassed by Texas this past Saturday night on ESPN.

Oklahoma State's inability to hit shots both inside and outside of the 3-point line continue to doom them.  This is now statistically one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, and they again shot under 34% in Lubbock.  On a good note, Keiton Page FINALLY got his shot to fall, and was an impressive 10-10 from the FT line (he's 25-for-25 in Big 12 play) and 4-8 from downtown to lead the Pokes with 26 points.  Marshall Moses had a respectable 13 points, but playing against an undersized Texas Tech team, should have had more.  JP Olukemi had 11 points, but fouled out of yet another game and at times looked so frustrated with himself that it's a wonder why Travis Ford left him in the game as long as he did.

The cream of the Big 12 conference (Texas) is quickly separating from the muck, and anything can happen over the remaining 9 games for the Cowboys. What's to lead me to believe it will happen, based on what I've seen the last few games? The Pokes can't shoot, they can't hold onto the ball, they can't win games they're suppose to win...

The best opportunity to right the ship has arrived.  Back-to-back home games against Missouri and Oklahoma give the Cowboys their best shot at getting some momentum and getting back into the race to join the upper-echelon teams in the conference.  While a win against Missouri doesn't seem likely, remember this: Road teams were a collective 1-5 this past weekend, with the only win going to Oklahoma in their games at Iowa State.  Road wins are extremely hard to come by in this league, and although Missouri is, in my opinion, the more talented team, I would not be entirely shocked to see a Cowboy win.

Texas gives Cowboys first home loss in almost a year

Texas' defense is very good.  Oklahoma State's offense is not.  UT's defense held the Cowboys to their lowest point total of the season - on the Pokes home floor, no less - and beat them 61-46 on the 10-year anniversary of the plane crash that took the lives of The 10.


Texas players honor Oklahoma State on a special night in Stillwater


It was an obviously very emotional night, as former head coach Eddie Sutton spoke, and was joined on the floor by teammates of The 10, including Desmond Mason, Andre Williams, and ESPN's Doug Gottlieb (a longtime fan favorite of mine).  Special commemorative t-shirts were worn by OSU during pre-game warmups and while on the bench during the game, and an in extremely classy move, by the Texas squad as well. After the game, Texas guard Dogus Balbay said, "It's tough for both sides. The fans are going to come and they're going to be emotional. The Oklahoma State team is going to be emotional as well. For us, too, it's really tough, it's really sad. But the only way we could honor those people was coming here and playing hard."  I applaud the Texas players and staff on a classy move and for understanding that the tragedy is more than just about OSU.

Back on the court, Texas may be the hottest team in college basketball right now.  Back-to-back wins at Phog Allen Fieldhouse and Gallagher-Iba Arena?  How many teams have done that in the past 5 years?  One, that's how many; the 2010-2011 Texas Longhorns. Texas is in the gauntlet of their conference schedule, and so far have passed the test with flying colors.  They play Saturday at home against Missouri and then Monday night at Texas A&M, and should they win those next 2 games as well will no doubt climb into the top 3-4 in the rankings.

Owning one of the top defenses in college basketball, the Longhorns continued their dominant defensive play against the Cowboys, holding them to 36% shooting from the floor in the first half and 1-6 from downtown. The second half wasn't any better for the home team, as the Pokes finished the night shooting 32% and only 1-11 (9%!) from 3-point land.  The fact of the matter is that OSU doesn't have anyone capable of scoring the ball by themselves.  Marshall Moses had a good game, with 14 points and 11 boards, but even he shot under 50% from the floor (which is not good for a post player) and did not attempt 1 free throw the entire game (a lack of aggressiveness). JP Olukemi looked like a star against Kansas State and Colorado, but has disappeared the last 2 games against Baylor and Texas.  He shot 27% from the floor and more than half of his points were at the free-throw line.  Keiton Page?  0-5 from 3, 0-7 from the floor, 0 points.

Last Saturday in Baylor, OSU seemingly was fouling the opponent every trip down the floor.  29 fouls in a collegiate game is absurd.  Against Texas, however, the Pokes played much more under control, they just simply got beat by a much better team.  The rebounding edge went to Texas but only by 1 rebound, and the Cowboys had more offensive rebounds than the Horns did.  Steals were even.  Blocks were even. Oklahoma State only turned the ball over 9 times, which considering how strong Texas plays defense, is impressive.  Reviewing those stats, one would think the game ended up being a 2-3 point win for the Horns.  But add in the horrible shooting for Oklahoma State, and compare it to the 61% Texas shot in the first half (and 4-5 from 3) and 7-0 run to start the second half, and the opportunity for a marquee win quickly slipped away from the Cowboys.

CTF has to find a playmaker, and he has to find one in a hurry.  Olukemi, for one reason or another, is not the player he was 2 weeks ago.  Keiton Page still cannot hit from downtown. Moses can put together a nice game, if he can stay on the floor. Ray Penn is not a scoring point guard. Where is the offense going to come from?  46 points on your home floor is not good at all.  Without a win against a good opponent (still have games against Missouri, Texas, A&M, Kansas, and Baylor), and probably a win in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, the Pokes won't get an invitation to this year's Dance.

The perfect cure for what ails any Big 12 team is a game against Texas Tech, and thankfully that's exactly what the Cowboys have this Saturday in Lubbock. Looking ahead just a little, the 3-game stretch the Cowboys have coming up will decide if an invite to the NCAA Tournament is warranted, with those games being at Texas Tech, followed by a big ones at home against Missouri and then Bedlam. Simply put, OSU has to find a way to win all 3 games, period.  Why? Take a look at the 4 games that follow the home game against OU: @ Nebraska, @ Texas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas.  Ouch.

Blown out at Baylor, Preparing for #7 Texas

Last Saturday in Waco was one of those games that you watch while it's being played, and as a Cowboys fan you find yourself saying "This is not going to turn out well" far too early in the game.  Although the Pokes kept it close for the first 18 minutes, Baylor closed on an 8-2 run to push their lead to 9 points going into the break.  Marshall Moses and JP Olukemi both played minimal minutes due to foul trouble, and that trend only continued in the second half.

The Pokes tried to make a run a couple of times in the second half, but the lead continued to hover around 9 points until the final 10 minutes of the game, when Baylor broke it open and ended up blowing OSU out 76-57.  Marshall Moses played a total of 11 out of a possible 40 minutes in the game.  JP Olukemi played 18 minutes.  I said before that Baylor was extremely talented, and when your two best players' minutes when added together don't equal an entire game, that's a recipe for a loss, no matter who the opponent is. Other stats that are hard to look at, but tell the tale of the game:

OSU shot 39% from the floor (Baylor shot 60%), and 21% from behind the arc (Baylor 57%).  Oklahoma State is shooting 27% from 3-point land in the month of January, one of the worst marks in all college basketball.
All 6 post players recorded AT LEAST 4 personal fouls, Olukemi was the only one with 5; not one Baylor post player recorded 4 fouls.
Oklahoma State scored fewer points against Baylor than Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Iowa State did against the Bears.

Again, some days the bear gets you, and Saturday in Waco, the Bears got the Pokes.  No choice but to move on to an even bigger game this Wednesday night in GIA against the suddenly surging and extremely dangerous Texas Longhorns.

Texas followed up an impressive win against Texas A&M in Austin by traveling to Lawrence, Kansas and beating the #2 Jayhawks, snapping KU's 69-game home winning streak.  Has Texas caught lightning in a bottle? Will this team mirror last year's squad who rose to #1 and were 17-0 but finished horribly and were bounced in the first round of the Tournament?  So far, all signs point to success in Austin.  Tristan Thompson, J'Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton have this Horns' squad playing dynamite basketball right now.  OSU has struggled guarding the slashing/penetrating small forwards/shooting guards so far this year (A&M's Khris Middleton, Iowa State's Diante Garrett, Baylor's LaceDarius Dunn) and each of those three in burnt orange are capable of dropping 25. 

ESPN will be in the house, the nation will be watching, and I hope CTF gets the boys ready to play.  Oh, and Oklahoma State's last home loss?  To Texas, last February...

GO POKES!!

Quarter-Season Review

With 10 of the 12 teams in conference having played their first 4 conference games, let's take a quick look at where everyone stands and where I thought they would be.

#1tie. Kansas 3-0 (my regular season prediction: #1; also, 1 of the 2 remaining teams who have only played 3 games thus far)

Wins:  @ Iowa State by 5, Nebraska by 3, @ Baylor by 20

Next 5 games:  Texas, @ Colorado, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 8-0

No reason to see a loss in any of their next 5. Texas could give them a good game, but it's in Lawrence.  Kansas State is the big in-state game and those always can be tricky, and Nebraska is playing much better than expected under Head Coach Doc Sadler, but Kansas is still Kansas.

#1tie. Texas 3-0 (regular season predicted finish: 6; the other team only with 3 conference games)

Wins: @ Tech by 31, Oklahoma by 20, Texas A&M by 21

Next 5 games: @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, Missouri, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

All 3 wins are blowouts, and the win at home against a very good A&M team was impressive.  Texas has by far the toughest next 5 games.  I see losses @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, and @ Texas A&M.

#3tie. Texas A&M 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 4)

Wins: @ Oklahoma by 18, Oklahoma State by 23, Missouri by 2

Loss: @ Texas by 21

Next 4 games: Kansas State, @ Nebraska, Texas, Baylor

Predicted record after 8 games: 6-2

The home win over Oklahoma State was impressive for them, but even more impressive was the comeback, overtime victory over Missouri on national tv.  I think they're next loss comes at home against Baylor.

#3tie. Colorado 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 9)

Wins: Missouri by 13, @ Kansas State by 8, Oklahoma State by 4

Loss: Nebraska by 12

Next 4 games: @ Oklahoma, Kansas, @ Baylor, Iowa State

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

A definite shocker of a team is playing great ball in Boulder.  First win against a ranked team at home in 7 years, followed up by the first win against a ranked team on the road in 14 years.  Very impressive stuff for Tad Boyle's bunch; however, don't see a win against Kansas or @ Baylor.


#5tie. Missouri 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 2)

Wins: Nebraska by 8, Kansas State by 16

Losses: @ Colorado by 13, @ Texas A&M by 2

Next 4 games: Iowa State, @ Texas, @ Oklahoma State, Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Talent, talent, talent.  It's pouring out of the team in Columbia, but it's not translating to wins just yet.  After going 2-2 in their first 4 conference games, I see another 2-2 stint, with wins against Iowa State and Colorado.



#5tie. Nebraska 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 12)

Wins: Iowa State by 1, Colorado by 12

Losses: @ Missouri by 8, @ Kansas by 3

Next 4 games: @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, Kansas
Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

Doc Sadler's team has started the season off well, and neither loss is what anyone would consider a "bad" loss (defined as a loss by more than 15 points or to a team with a drastically lower RPI than them).  The Huskers had a great chance for a program-changing win at Allen Fieldhouse last week to the #3 Kansas Jayhawks, but fell just short.  They should get a win against Texas Tech, but I don't see them winning against the other 3 teams.


#5tie. Oklahoma State 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 7)

Wins: Kansas State by 14, Iowa State by 9

Losses: @ Texas A&M by 23, @ Colorado by 4

Next 4 games: @ Baylor, Texas, @ Texas Tech, Missouri

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

The K-State win was a great win.  The Iowa State was hard-fought win.   The loss to A&M was surprising, and the loss to Colorado was a whole new level of frustrating.  I see coin-flip games @ Baylor and home against Texas, and the Cowboys should win one of those two, and I see a Poke win in Lubbock.

#5tie. Baylor 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 5)

Wins: @ Texas Tech by 12, Oklahoma by 13

Losses: @ Iowa State by 15, Kansas by 20

Next 4 games: Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, Colorado, @ Oklahoma

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Baylor is probably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the Big 12.  But as the Miami Heat struggled at the start of the season with "how do we get so many talented players to play together and work cohesively", the Baylor Bears have yet to find that answer.  The loss to Kansas wasn't surprising, but the margin was.  The loss in Ames is high on the shock meter.  Both wins are against conference doormats.  Baylor's conference schedule is backloaded heavily, and as of today, I don't see this team having an above-.500 record.

#8tie. Iowa State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 8)

Win: Baylor by 15

Losses: @ Nebraska by 1, @ Kansas by 5, @ Oklahoma State by 9

Next 4 games: @ Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, @ Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

When looking at their first 4 games, this is a team that is on the cusp of a big, marquee win very soon.  All 3 losses are by a combined 15 points, with one game ending in overtime. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a win in Boulder, along with wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

#8tie. Kansas State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 3)

Win: Texas Tech by 34

Losses: @ Oklahoma State by 14, Colorado by 8, @ Missouri by 16

Next 4 games: @ Texas A&M, Baylor, @ Kansas, Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

How far the once-promising season has fallen.  A team that started the season as Big 12 favorites and nationally ranked inside the Top 5, this team doesn't yet know how to play together.  Don't expect them to figure it out with trips to College Station and Lawrence, and I'm predicting a home loss to Nebraska.

#8tie. Oklahoma 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 11)

Win: Texas Tech by 9

Losses: Texas A&M by 18, @ Baylor by 13, @ Texas by 20

Next 4 games: Colorado, @ Iowa State, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State

Predicted record after 8 games: 1-7

I think the nicest way to sum up the Sooners' season so far is "embarassing." Oklahoma's BEST win this season is against Oral Roberts.  That's how bad things are in Norman.  Each of the next 4 teams they face are better than them in every facet of the game.




#12. Texas Tech 0-4 (regular season predicted finish: 10)

Losses: Baylor by 12, Texas by 31, @ Kansas State by 34, @ Oklahoma by 9

Next 4 games: Nebraska, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Predicted record after 8 games: 0-8

A month before the first game of the Red Raiders' 2010-2011 season, Pat Knight was quoted as saying this year was a "get-an-extension or a get-fired kind of year".  Open mouth, insert foot.  Pat Knight was nowhere near ready to take over as head coach for a Division 1 basketball program.  There will be a new coach in Lubbock next season.

In hindsight, I shorted Colorado and Nebraska on their chances, and gave way too much credit to Kansas State and Baylor.  All in all, I'm still pretty confident about my picks, and I'll review it again after every team has played another 4 games, bringing the Big 12 season to it's halfway point.