Quarter-Season Review

With 10 of the 12 teams in conference having played their first 4 conference games, let's take a quick look at where everyone stands and where I thought they would be.

#1tie. Kansas 3-0 (my regular season prediction: #1; also, 1 of the 2 remaining teams who have only played 3 games thus far)

Wins:  @ Iowa State by 5, Nebraska by 3, @ Baylor by 20

Next 5 games:  Texas, @ Colorado, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 8-0

No reason to see a loss in any of their next 5. Texas could give them a good game, but it's in Lawrence.  Kansas State is the big in-state game and those always can be tricky, and Nebraska is playing much better than expected under Head Coach Doc Sadler, but Kansas is still Kansas.

#1tie. Texas 3-0 (regular season predicted finish: 6; the other team only with 3 conference games)

Wins: @ Tech by 31, Oklahoma by 20, Texas A&M by 21

Next 5 games: @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, Missouri, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

All 3 wins are blowouts, and the win at home against a very good A&M team was impressive.  Texas has by far the toughest next 5 games.  I see losses @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, and @ Texas A&M.

#3tie. Texas A&M 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 4)

Wins: @ Oklahoma by 18, Oklahoma State by 23, Missouri by 2

Loss: @ Texas by 21

Next 4 games: Kansas State, @ Nebraska, Texas, Baylor

Predicted record after 8 games: 6-2

The home win over Oklahoma State was impressive for them, but even more impressive was the comeback, overtime victory over Missouri on national tv.  I think they're next loss comes at home against Baylor.

#3tie. Colorado 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 9)

Wins: Missouri by 13, @ Kansas State by 8, Oklahoma State by 4

Loss: Nebraska by 12

Next 4 games: @ Oklahoma, Kansas, @ Baylor, Iowa State

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

A definite shocker of a team is playing great ball in Boulder.  First win against a ranked team at home in 7 years, followed up by the first win against a ranked team on the road in 14 years.  Very impressive stuff for Tad Boyle's bunch; however, don't see a win against Kansas or @ Baylor.


#5tie. Missouri 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 2)

Wins: Nebraska by 8, Kansas State by 16

Losses: @ Colorado by 13, @ Texas A&M by 2

Next 4 games: Iowa State, @ Texas, @ Oklahoma State, Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Talent, talent, talent.  It's pouring out of the team in Columbia, but it's not translating to wins just yet.  After going 2-2 in their first 4 conference games, I see another 2-2 stint, with wins against Iowa State and Colorado.



#5tie. Nebraska 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 12)

Wins: Iowa State by 1, Colorado by 12

Losses: @ Missouri by 8, @ Kansas by 3

Next 4 games: @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, Kansas
Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

Doc Sadler's team has started the season off well, and neither loss is what anyone would consider a "bad" loss (defined as a loss by more than 15 points or to a team with a drastically lower RPI than them).  The Huskers had a great chance for a program-changing win at Allen Fieldhouse last week to the #3 Kansas Jayhawks, but fell just short.  They should get a win against Texas Tech, but I don't see them winning against the other 3 teams.


#5tie. Oklahoma State 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 7)

Wins: Kansas State by 14, Iowa State by 9

Losses: @ Texas A&M by 23, @ Colorado by 4

Next 4 games: @ Baylor, Texas, @ Texas Tech, Missouri

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

The K-State win was a great win.  The Iowa State was hard-fought win.   The loss to A&M was surprising, and the loss to Colorado was a whole new level of frustrating.  I see coin-flip games @ Baylor and home against Texas, and the Cowboys should win one of those two, and I see a Poke win in Lubbock.

#5tie. Baylor 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 5)

Wins: @ Texas Tech by 12, Oklahoma by 13

Losses: @ Iowa State by 15, Kansas by 20

Next 4 games: Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, Colorado, @ Oklahoma

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Baylor is probably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the Big 12.  But as the Miami Heat struggled at the start of the season with "how do we get so many talented players to play together and work cohesively", the Baylor Bears have yet to find that answer.  The loss to Kansas wasn't surprising, but the margin was.  The loss in Ames is high on the shock meter.  Both wins are against conference doormats.  Baylor's conference schedule is backloaded heavily, and as of today, I don't see this team having an above-.500 record.

#8tie. Iowa State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 8)

Win: Baylor by 15

Losses: @ Nebraska by 1, @ Kansas by 5, @ Oklahoma State by 9

Next 4 games: @ Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, @ Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

When looking at their first 4 games, this is a team that is on the cusp of a big, marquee win very soon.  All 3 losses are by a combined 15 points, with one game ending in overtime. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a win in Boulder, along with wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

#8tie. Kansas State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 3)

Win: Texas Tech by 34

Losses: @ Oklahoma State by 14, Colorado by 8, @ Missouri by 16

Next 4 games: @ Texas A&M, Baylor, @ Kansas, Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

How far the once-promising season has fallen.  A team that started the season as Big 12 favorites and nationally ranked inside the Top 5, this team doesn't yet know how to play together.  Don't expect them to figure it out with trips to College Station and Lawrence, and I'm predicting a home loss to Nebraska.

#8tie. Oklahoma 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 11)

Win: Texas Tech by 9

Losses: Texas A&M by 18, @ Baylor by 13, @ Texas by 20

Next 4 games: Colorado, @ Iowa State, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State

Predicted record after 8 games: 1-7

I think the nicest way to sum up the Sooners' season so far is "embarassing." Oklahoma's BEST win this season is against Oral Roberts.  That's how bad things are in Norman.  Each of the next 4 teams they face are better than them in every facet of the game.




#12. Texas Tech 0-4 (regular season predicted finish: 10)

Losses: Baylor by 12, Texas by 31, @ Kansas State by 34, @ Oklahoma by 9

Next 4 games: Nebraska, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Predicted record after 8 games: 0-8

A month before the first game of the Red Raiders' 2010-2011 season, Pat Knight was quoted as saying this year was a "get-an-extension or a get-fired kind of year".  Open mouth, insert foot.  Pat Knight was nowhere near ready to take over as head coach for a Division 1 basketball program.  There will be a new coach in Lubbock next season.

In hindsight, I shorted Colorado and Nebraska on their chances, and gave way too much credit to Kansas State and Baylor.  All in all, I'm still pretty confident about my picks, and I'll review it again after every team has played another 4 games, bringing the Big 12 season to it's halfway point.