Another Blown Opportunity

AP photo

What's going on with this Cowboys basketball team?  Without something "clicking" in the collective minds of the Pokes - and in the immediate future - this team could end up at the bottom of the Big 12.  As it stands now, OSU is 2-5 and that's with an amazing comeback win against Iowa State at home a week ago, or this team would be 1-6 and dead last in the conference.  It's not going to get any easier, as an angry Missouri Tigers team comes to GIA on Wednesday after being embarrassed by Texas this past Saturday night on ESPN.

Oklahoma State's inability to hit shots both inside and outside of the 3-point line continue to doom them.  This is now statistically one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, and they again shot under 34% in Lubbock.  On a good note, Keiton Page FINALLY got his shot to fall, and was an impressive 10-10 from the FT line (he's 25-for-25 in Big 12 play) and 4-8 from downtown to lead the Pokes with 26 points.  Marshall Moses had a respectable 13 points, but playing against an undersized Texas Tech team, should have had more.  JP Olukemi had 11 points, but fouled out of yet another game and at times looked so frustrated with himself that it's a wonder why Travis Ford left him in the game as long as he did.

The cream of the Big 12 conference (Texas) is quickly separating from the muck, and anything can happen over the remaining 9 games for the Cowboys. What's to lead me to believe it will happen, based on what I've seen the last few games? The Pokes can't shoot, they can't hold onto the ball, they can't win games they're suppose to win...

The best opportunity to right the ship has arrived.  Back-to-back home games against Missouri and Oklahoma give the Cowboys their best shot at getting some momentum and getting back into the race to join the upper-echelon teams in the conference.  While a win against Missouri doesn't seem likely, remember this: Road teams were a collective 1-5 this past weekend, with the only win going to Oklahoma in their games at Iowa State.  Road wins are extremely hard to come by in this league, and although Missouri is, in my opinion, the more talented team, I would not be entirely shocked to see a Cowboy win.

Texas gives Cowboys first home loss in almost a year

Texas' defense is very good.  Oklahoma State's offense is not.  UT's defense held the Cowboys to their lowest point total of the season - on the Pokes home floor, no less - and beat them 61-46 on the 10-year anniversary of the plane crash that took the lives of The 10.


Texas players honor Oklahoma State on a special night in Stillwater


It was an obviously very emotional night, as former head coach Eddie Sutton spoke, and was joined on the floor by teammates of The 10, including Desmond Mason, Andre Williams, and ESPN's Doug Gottlieb (a longtime fan favorite of mine).  Special commemorative t-shirts were worn by OSU during pre-game warmups and while on the bench during the game, and an in extremely classy move, by the Texas squad as well. After the game, Texas guard Dogus Balbay said, "It's tough for both sides. The fans are going to come and they're going to be emotional. The Oklahoma State team is going to be emotional as well. For us, too, it's really tough, it's really sad. But the only way we could honor those people was coming here and playing hard."  I applaud the Texas players and staff on a classy move and for understanding that the tragedy is more than just about OSU.

Back on the court, Texas may be the hottest team in college basketball right now.  Back-to-back wins at Phog Allen Fieldhouse and Gallagher-Iba Arena?  How many teams have done that in the past 5 years?  One, that's how many; the 2010-2011 Texas Longhorns. Texas is in the gauntlet of their conference schedule, and so far have passed the test with flying colors.  They play Saturday at home against Missouri and then Monday night at Texas A&M, and should they win those next 2 games as well will no doubt climb into the top 3-4 in the rankings.

Owning one of the top defenses in college basketball, the Longhorns continued their dominant defensive play against the Cowboys, holding them to 36% shooting from the floor in the first half and 1-6 from downtown. The second half wasn't any better for the home team, as the Pokes finished the night shooting 32% and only 1-11 (9%!) from 3-point land.  The fact of the matter is that OSU doesn't have anyone capable of scoring the ball by themselves.  Marshall Moses had a good game, with 14 points and 11 boards, but even he shot under 50% from the floor (which is not good for a post player) and did not attempt 1 free throw the entire game (a lack of aggressiveness). JP Olukemi looked like a star against Kansas State and Colorado, but has disappeared the last 2 games against Baylor and Texas.  He shot 27% from the floor and more than half of his points were at the free-throw line.  Keiton Page?  0-5 from 3, 0-7 from the floor, 0 points.

Last Saturday in Baylor, OSU seemingly was fouling the opponent every trip down the floor.  29 fouls in a collegiate game is absurd.  Against Texas, however, the Pokes played much more under control, they just simply got beat by a much better team.  The rebounding edge went to Texas but only by 1 rebound, and the Cowboys had more offensive rebounds than the Horns did.  Steals were even.  Blocks were even. Oklahoma State only turned the ball over 9 times, which considering how strong Texas plays defense, is impressive.  Reviewing those stats, one would think the game ended up being a 2-3 point win for the Horns.  But add in the horrible shooting for Oklahoma State, and compare it to the 61% Texas shot in the first half (and 4-5 from 3) and 7-0 run to start the second half, and the opportunity for a marquee win quickly slipped away from the Cowboys.

CTF has to find a playmaker, and he has to find one in a hurry.  Olukemi, for one reason or another, is not the player he was 2 weeks ago.  Keiton Page still cannot hit from downtown. Moses can put together a nice game, if he can stay on the floor. Ray Penn is not a scoring point guard. Where is the offense going to come from?  46 points on your home floor is not good at all.  Without a win against a good opponent (still have games against Missouri, Texas, A&M, Kansas, and Baylor), and probably a win in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, the Pokes won't get an invitation to this year's Dance.

The perfect cure for what ails any Big 12 team is a game against Texas Tech, and thankfully that's exactly what the Cowboys have this Saturday in Lubbock. Looking ahead just a little, the 3-game stretch the Cowboys have coming up will decide if an invite to the NCAA Tournament is warranted, with those games being at Texas Tech, followed by a big ones at home against Missouri and then Bedlam. Simply put, OSU has to find a way to win all 3 games, period.  Why? Take a look at the 4 games that follow the home game against OU: @ Nebraska, @ Texas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas.  Ouch.

Blown out at Baylor, Preparing for #7 Texas

Last Saturday in Waco was one of those games that you watch while it's being played, and as a Cowboys fan you find yourself saying "This is not going to turn out well" far too early in the game.  Although the Pokes kept it close for the first 18 minutes, Baylor closed on an 8-2 run to push their lead to 9 points going into the break.  Marshall Moses and JP Olukemi both played minimal minutes due to foul trouble, and that trend only continued in the second half.

The Pokes tried to make a run a couple of times in the second half, but the lead continued to hover around 9 points until the final 10 minutes of the game, when Baylor broke it open and ended up blowing OSU out 76-57.  Marshall Moses played a total of 11 out of a possible 40 minutes in the game.  JP Olukemi played 18 minutes.  I said before that Baylor was extremely talented, and when your two best players' minutes when added together don't equal an entire game, that's a recipe for a loss, no matter who the opponent is. Other stats that are hard to look at, but tell the tale of the game:

OSU shot 39% from the floor (Baylor shot 60%), and 21% from behind the arc (Baylor 57%).  Oklahoma State is shooting 27% from 3-point land in the month of January, one of the worst marks in all college basketball.
All 6 post players recorded AT LEAST 4 personal fouls, Olukemi was the only one with 5; not one Baylor post player recorded 4 fouls.
Oklahoma State scored fewer points against Baylor than Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Iowa State did against the Bears.

Again, some days the bear gets you, and Saturday in Waco, the Bears got the Pokes.  No choice but to move on to an even bigger game this Wednesday night in GIA against the suddenly surging and extremely dangerous Texas Longhorns.

Texas followed up an impressive win against Texas A&M in Austin by traveling to Lawrence, Kansas and beating the #2 Jayhawks, snapping KU's 69-game home winning streak.  Has Texas caught lightning in a bottle? Will this team mirror last year's squad who rose to #1 and were 17-0 but finished horribly and were bounced in the first round of the Tournament?  So far, all signs point to success in Austin.  Tristan Thompson, J'Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton have this Horns' squad playing dynamite basketball right now.  OSU has struggled guarding the slashing/penetrating small forwards/shooting guards so far this year (A&M's Khris Middleton, Iowa State's Diante Garrett, Baylor's LaceDarius Dunn) and each of those three in burnt orange are capable of dropping 25. 

ESPN will be in the house, the nation will be watching, and I hope CTF gets the boys ready to play.  Oh, and Oklahoma State's last home loss?  To Texas, last February...

GO POKES!!

Quarter-Season Review

With 10 of the 12 teams in conference having played their first 4 conference games, let's take a quick look at where everyone stands and where I thought they would be.

#1tie. Kansas 3-0 (my regular season prediction: #1; also, 1 of the 2 remaining teams who have only played 3 games thus far)

Wins:  @ Iowa State by 5, Nebraska by 3, @ Baylor by 20

Next 5 games:  Texas, @ Colorado, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 8-0

No reason to see a loss in any of their next 5. Texas could give them a good game, but it's in Lawrence.  Kansas State is the big in-state game and those always can be tricky, and Nebraska is playing much better than expected under Head Coach Doc Sadler, but Kansas is still Kansas.

#1tie. Texas 3-0 (regular season predicted finish: 6; the other team only with 3 conference games)

Wins: @ Tech by 31, Oklahoma by 20, Texas A&M by 21

Next 5 games: @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, Missouri, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

All 3 wins are blowouts, and the win at home against a very good A&M team was impressive.  Texas has by far the toughest next 5 games.  I see losses @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, and @ Texas A&M.

#3tie. Texas A&M 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 4)

Wins: @ Oklahoma by 18, Oklahoma State by 23, Missouri by 2

Loss: @ Texas by 21

Next 4 games: Kansas State, @ Nebraska, Texas, Baylor

Predicted record after 8 games: 6-2

The home win over Oklahoma State was impressive for them, but even more impressive was the comeback, overtime victory over Missouri on national tv.  I think they're next loss comes at home against Baylor.

#3tie. Colorado 3-1 (regular season predicted finish: 9)

Wins: Missouri by 13, @ Kansas State by 8, Oklahoma State by 4

Loss: Nebraska by 12

Next 4 games: @ Oklahoma, Kansas, @ Baylor, Iowa State

Predicted record after 8 games: 5-3

A definite shocker of a team is playing great ball in Boulder.  First win against a ranked team at home in 7 years, followed up by the first win against a ranked team on the road in 14 years.  Very impressive stuff for Tad Boyle's bunch; however, don't see a win against Kansas or @ Baylor.


#5tie. Missouri 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 2)

Wins: Nebraska by 8, Kansas State by 16

Losses: @ Colorado by 13, @ Texas A&M by 2

Next 4 games: Iowa State, @ Texas, @ Oklahoma State, Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Talent, talent, talent.  It's pouring out of the team in Columbia, but it's not translating to wins just yet.  After going 2-2 in their first 4 conference games, I see another 2-2 stint, with wins against Iowa State and Colorado.



#5tie. Nebraska 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 12)

Wins: Iowa State by 1, Colorado by 12

Losses: @ Missouri by 8, @ Kansas by 3

Next 4 games: @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, Kansas
Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

Doc Sadler's team has started the season off well, and neither loss is what anyone would consider a "bad" loss (defined as a loss by more than 15 points or to a team with a drastically lower RPI than them).  The Huskers had a great chance for a program-changing win at Allen Fieldhouse last week to the #3 Kansas Jayhawks, but fell just short.  They should get a win against Texas Tech, but I don't see them winning against the other 3 teams.


#5tie. Oklahoma State 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 7)

Wins: Kansas State by 14, Iowa State by 9

Losses: @ Texas A&M by 23, @ Colorado by 4

Next 4 games: @ Baylor, Texas, @ Texas Tech, Missouri

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

The K-State win was a great win.  The Iowa State was hard-fought win.   The loss to A&M was surprising, and the loss to Colorado was a whole new level of frustrating.  I see coin-flip games @ Baylor and home against Texas, and the Cowboys should win one of those two, and I see a Poke win in Lubbock.

#5tie. Baylor 2-2 (regular season predicted finish: 5)

Wins: @ Texas Tech by 12, Oklahoma by 13

Losses: @ Iowa State by 15, Kansas by 20

Next 4 games: Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, Colorado, @ Oklahoma

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

Baylor is probably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the Big 12.  But as the Miami Heat struggled at the start of the season with "how do we get so many talented players to play together and work cohesively", the Baylor Bears have yet to find that answer.  The loss to Kansas wasn't surprising, but the margin was.  The loss in Ames is high on the shock meter.  Both wins are against conference doormats.  Baylor's conference schedule is backloaded heavily, and as of today, I don't see this team having an above-.500 record.

#8tie. Iowa State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 8)

Win: Baylor by 15

Losses: @ Nebraska by 1, @ Kansas by 5, @ Oklahoma State by 9

Next 4 games: @ Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, @ Colorado

Predicted record after 8 games: 4-4

When looking at their first 4 games, this is a team that is on the cusp of a big, marquee win very soon.  All 3 losses are by a combined 15 points, with one game ending in overtime. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a win in Boulder, along with wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

#8tie. Kansas State 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 3)

Win: Texas Tech by 34

Losses: @ Oklahoma State by 14, Colorado by 8, @ Missouri by 16

Next 4 games: @ Texas A&M, Baylor, @ Kansas, Nebraska

Predicted record after 8 games: 3-5

How far the once-promising season has fallen.  A team that started the season as Big 12 favorites and nationally ranked inside the Top 5, this team doesn't yet know how to play together.  Don't expect them to figure it out with trips to College Station and Lawrence, and I'm predicting a home loss to Nebraska.

#8tie. Oklahoma 1-3 (regular season predicted finish: 11)

Win: Texas Tech by 9

Losses: Texas A&M by 18, @ Baylor by 13, @ Texas by 20

Next 4 games: Colorado, @ Iowa State, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State

Predicted record after 8 games: 1-7

I think the nicest way to sum up the Sooners' season so far is "embarassing." Oklahoma's BEST win this season is against Oral Roberts.  That's how bad things are in Norman.  Each of the next 4 teams they face are better than them in every facet of the game.




#12. Texas Tech 0-4 (regular season predicted finish: 10)

Losses: Baylor by 12, Texas by 31, @ Kansas State by 34, @ Oklahoma by 9

Next 4 games: Nebraska, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Predicted record after 8 games: 0-8

A month before the first game of the Red Raiders' 2010-2011 season, Pat Knight was quoted as saying this year was a "get-an-extension or a get-fired kind of year".  Open mouth, insert foot.  Pat Knight was nowhere near ready to take over as head coach for a Division 1 basketball program.  There will be a new coach in Lubbock next season.

In hindsight, I shorted Colorado and Nebraska on their chances, and gave way too much credit to Kansas State and Baylor.  All in all, I'm still pretty confident about my picks, and I'll review it again after every team has played another 4 games, bringing the Big 12 season to it's halfway point.

Getting it done in Gallagher-Iba!

What an incredible win for the Cowboys Wednesday night, as they overcame a 9-point deficit with 3 minutes remaining, tied it with Keiton Page's 3-pointer with 23 seconds left, and ran past Iowa State 96-87 in OT. The Pokes needed this win to generate some momentum and confidence heading into a stretch of 3 tough games in their next 2 weeks (with a freebie game @ Texas Tech thrown in there, too).  JP Olukemi continues to make a splash on the college basketball scene as a serious talent, and will only continue to make it difficult for teams to figure out how to guard him when he can fill up a stat sheet like this:

29 points

12-for-12 from the stripe

8 rebounds

3 assists

4 steals

2 blocks

1 bag of popcorn sold at concession stand.

Those are the kind of numbers that get you noticed by NBA scouts and GMs.  Those are the kind of numbers that could potentially lift #0 to a lottery pick.  If he can put together similar games against Baylor, Texas, and Missouri in the next 14 days, the rest of the nation will be well aware of this young man.

Keiton Page and Marshall Moses were both huge again for the Cowboys, which I have said all along will determine just how good this team will be.  Another double-double for Moses (18 pts, 10 rebs), and 19 points for Page (he still needs to shoot better from behind the arc) were vital to the Cowboys fighting back into this game after falling behind by as many as 10 in the second half, and trailing by 9 with just over 3 minutes left.    Another big stat from the game is that Ray Penn had only 1 turnover.  When your starting point guard doesn't give the ball away and is efficient in the role he's asked to play in the offense, good things will happen.  As a counterpoint, Diante Garrett was without question the best player on the floor for Iowa State, but he also had 7 turnovers by himself.  That's a huge number for a guard, especially one who handles the ball as much as he does.

Up next for the Pokes is a big game in Waco and another opportunity to prove they can play with anyone this league.  Baylor has thus far underperformed mightily to the expectations that were placed on them coming into the season, but this is still a team that can put 100 points on the scoreboard in a hurry.  They won't play much in terms of defense, but have more than enough capable weapons on offense to make matchups difficult. 

Off-the-court issues aside, I still think Baylor's best player is Lacedarius Dunn.  I know superstar All-Everything true Freshman Perry Jones has the potential, but this team will go as Dunn goes.  Baylor stands at 2-2 in conference play right now (tied with the Cowboys) but their two wins are against doormats Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  Both wins were by more than 10 points, while both losses were by more than 10 as well, as Iowa State beat them in Ames by 15 and Kansas blasted them in Waco by 20. I expect Baylor to be down on themselves a little, as they were probably expecting to be 17-0 or 16-1 at worst at this point in mid-January, instead of the 12-5 record they have. 

Hopefully the Cowboys can build upon the success of Wednesday night's win and make the trip to Waco and put another one in the W column.

GO POKES!

Concern in Colorado...

OSU dropped a second consecutive road game in conference yesterday, this time to Colorado at the Coors Center in Boulder 75-71.  The loss isn't that shocking, considering Colorado was coming off defeats of ranked teams in Missouri and Kansas State, but the way the Cowboys lost was frustrating.  They had a 12-point lead with just over 15 minutes remaining and gave it all up before trying to mount a furious comeback in the final 2 minutes. 

J-P Olukemi had another solid outing for the Pokes with 21 points, and Keiton Page added 19, but the Cowboys have to watch this film and be kicking themselves for letting it get away.  They had a great opportunity to beat a team that was full of confidence and swagger, and came ever so close to doing so.  Coach Ford will have to get them re-focused quickly, as an Iowa State team that just blasted Baylor by 15 on Saturday comes to GIA this Wednesday night.

Yes you read that correctly, Iowa State beat Baylor (who started the season ranked inside the top 15) and beat them badly.  Anyone that doubted the Big 12's collective strength as a basketball conference has to quickly be changing that opinion, even if it's only been a week.  Perennial power #2 Kansas (as of Monday 1/17) is still the cream of the crop, but it took every second for them to beat Nebraska at home on Saturday.  #10 Texas A&M still looks good, and beat a good Missouri team (now ranked #14) in overtime in College Station.  Colorado has looked good coming out of the gate 3-0, and #11 Texas is the only other undefeated team in the league but hasn't played anyone of note yet (that changes with a game in Austin Wednesday night against A&M).  The conference now has 5 teams ranked in the Top 25, and all but two teams (Oklahoma, Texas Tech) have fewer than 6 losses.  Even the "almighty" Big East conference has 6 teams with 6 or more losses already this season, and the ACC (admittedly in a down year) has 5 teams already with 6 or more losses.

OSU has a crucial 3-game stretch coming up and it needs to find a way to go 2-1 to right the ship.  A home game against Iowa State (best chance for a win), followed by a road game at a talented-but-underperforming Baylor team, and back home for a big Wednesday game against Texas will tell Cowboy fans and the rest of the conference just how good this Poke team can be.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Cowboys go 1-2, but they HAVE to find a way to win in Baylor if they want to have the confidence to beat a good Texas team 4 days later.  A best-case scenario would be 3-0, as I think Iowa State can't win in GIA, and if Baylor starts the game shooting poorly, it may get the feeling of "here we go again..".  Finally, if the Cowboys can get those wins, and then home to face Texas (which I think is a good team, but they are not the 11th best team in the country), the opportunity will be better than good to get another quality win and push the Orange and White to 4-2 in league play. 

The key to getting some good wins?  It has to be Marshall Moses inside and J-P Olukemi driving.  If Marshall can get going inside, teams will collapse on him, allowing the kickout to Page.  If Olukemi can be effective going to the bucket, it will open up Marshall, Pilgrim, and D. Williams for easy dunks.  It's simply a matter of execution.  Hopefully the guys realize that and can get some good wins!

GO POKES!!

BOTH are BACK!!

 Great news for OSU football this week, as both starting QB Brandon Weeden and Biletnikoff Award winner Justin Blackmon announced they would return to Stillwater for the 2011 season!!

As any Cowboy fan knows, the tandem were as dangerous and explosive as any QB-WR combination in the country.  Another spring and summer of working together, and it won't matter what any defender or defensive coach tries to do, these two could be even bigger next year.

The new look Big 12-2 is going be loaded on offense next year, but if the conference is going to break out of it's perception of "little brother" to the SEC, it's going to have to prove itself in big bowl games, especially in the BCS. Early ESPN projections for 2011 have the Cowboys at #6, which is a testament to the program Mike Gundy has built in his time in Lewis Field, but he also has a major decision still to make - who to hire as Offensive Coordinator?  My first guess was Chad Morris (Tulsa) but he has accepted the same position with Clemson.  At the other end of the spectrum is the rumor of Mike Leach joining the staff, which I think would be a massive mistake on so many levels.

First, Leach is an odd cat.  And that's like saying "Bill Gates is rich."  I know Dana Holgerson wasn't exactly part of the Brady Bunch, but I think he still knew he was paying his dues and staying in line (i.e. no odd press conferences, no weird stories out in the major media, etc.).  Leach is a smart guy and sometimes a smart guy's greatest weakness is that he starts realizing he's a smart guy.  And he thinks everyone should think he's a smart guy.  Ergo, snowball effect....

Also, Leach continues to try to fight this Adam James story.  Why?  If he'd let it go and just stop talking about it, the only people that really care what happened are the James family and ESPN (gives them something to talk about; a fan to flame)  He's now also interviewed or rumored to have interviewed at the following schools:  Washington, Maryland, Miami, Colorado, UConn, Pitt, and Clemson.  And not one place has hired him.  Hmmm....skeletons in the closet, anyone?

I have no clue who Gundy will hire, and I will support whatever decision is made, but the time is quickly coming where something has to happen.  This could potentially be an incredible recruiting class for the Pokes, but every school out there will prey on these kids and their families by telling them "Why would you want to go to OSU when you don't even know who is calling plays or what kind of offense is going to be run?"  Trust me folks, good recruiters are like sharks to blood.  They'll exploit any and every weakness and second guessing in a kid's mind.

But for now, Cowboy fans celebrate the (wise) decision of both Blackmon and Weeden to return for another season in Orange and White.

GO POKES!!

Night to forget in College Station

Coach Ford during Tuesday's game at Reed Arena

OSU ran into a buzzsaw Tuesday night in College Station against a sound Texas A&M team.  What was a 2-point game through the first 10 minutes turned into a 9-point deficit for the Pokes by the half, and the second half just got worse for Coach Travis Ford and his team.  The momentum that was generated by a win over a ranked Kansas State team the weekend before also took a hit as K State was beaten by Colorado, giving the Buffaloes their first win over a ranked team on the road in 14 years.

As I stated in my last post, A&M is a good team, and to use a tired cliche, it's hard to win on the road in this league.  Nevertheless, it's games like in College Station that the Cowboys have to find a way to win if they want to get back to the level of success enjoyed under Eddie and getting to the Elite 8 on a fairly consistent basis.  With that said, Saturday's game provides another great test for this team to show what they're made of and what kind of fight they have in them.  A road game at a suddenly - and shockingly - 2-0 Colorado team gives the Cowboys a great way to rebound from a bad defeat in  College Station, and offers a chance to get to 2-1 in conference play heading back home for a game against Iowa State next week.

Colorado is still tough to figure out, even after impressive wins to start conference play over Missouri (first home win over ranked team in 8 years) and at Kansas State.  Can they keep it up?  Has the tide turned in Boulder?  OSU beat Colorado last year at GIA and didn't play in Boulder, which is historically a tough place to play not because of the team, but because of altitude.  Getting the first conference road win of the season against a team that's full of confidence is going to be tough, and beating CU at their place would be huge.

And that's just what I see happening...
Pokes - 70
Buffs - 64

GO POKES!!

1-0; onto College Station

The Cowboys started Big 12 play off on the right foot Saturday night at GIA, taking down the #17 team in the country in the Kansas State Wildcats 76-62. For most of the first half, it didn't look like it was going to be the Pokes' day, as KSU held a lead for the majority of the first 20 minutes.  The opening minutes of the second half didn't look any better, but then J-P Olukemi decided he had had enough of all this, and took the game over.  A clutch lay-up-and-one followed a couple minutes later by a 3 from NBA-range and OSU had wrestled momentum away from the KSU team. 

I was really impressed with the composure the team kept through basically the first 31 minutes of the game.  After falling behind by their biggest margin of 8 with about 10 minutes left, the Cowboys finally woke up and found out they could really play with KSU if they played as a team.  A 37-15 run over the final 9:45 had GIA rocking and an unproven OSU squad swelling with pride over their first "good" win of the year. This is the kind of win that should (depending on if/when KSU turns this once-promising season around) look good to the committee come March. 

Let's not forget, this is a KSU team that virtually every writer who covers the Big 12 expected to win the conference this year.  What I found appalling was the lack of a team-concept the Wildcats play with.  It seems the plan is to either let Jacob Pullen find his own shots, or hope that Samuels or someone else gets hot for a stretch.  For a team expected to be elite, and one who started the season ranked inside the Top 5 in the country, this was not a team worthy of such high praise.  I know it's early in the conference season, but the 2011 KSU team reminds me a whole lot of the 2010 Texas team.  High expectations, bloated ranking, and crashed back to reality violently.  The Wildcats have now lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Looking ahead to Wednesday night, the Pokes have another huge test in College Station against the 14th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies.  A&M traveled to Norman for their Big 12 opener against the Sooners, and quickly showed they are in the top quarter of teams in the league, while OU is - how delicately can I put this - just awful.  I know Blake Griffin was a freak of athletic ability and they had some good role players on their Elite 8 team a couple years ago, but the decline in which basketball has fallen for the Sooners is shocking.  Texas A&M on the other hand looks to be the same kind of team they've been since Mark Turgeon arrived at Reed Arena in 2007; tough, defense-first, patient offense, great rebounding, play hard for 40 minutes.  It seems the Aggies fly under the radar almost every year, and yet consistently finish in the top 1/2 of a very strong conference.

In my initial prediction, I have OSU losing this game due to a couple of reasons:

#1 - It's on the road

#2 - Texas A&M is probably the first or second-best defense OSU will face all season (Missouri being the other, in my opinion).

OSU hasn't played a quality road-opponent yet (it took double overtime to beat LaSalle) and was blown out in its last road game at Gonzaga.  Texas A&M is 17-7 in the last 2 years at Reed Arena (compare to OSU's mark of 18-6 at GIA) and Reed Arena is becoming recognized as one of the tougher places to play (nowhere near as tough as GIA, but give them their due).

Prediction:

Aggies  71

Cowboys 65



Let the Show.....BEGIN!

The Pokes finished off their 2010-2011 out-of-conference (OOC) schedule tonight with a solid win over UTSA, 79-63. Jan-Paul Olekemi paced the Orange and White with 16 points and Marshall Moses added 14 for the Cowboys, who now must get ready for a good - yet sporadic - Kansas State team to visit GIA in 5 days.

I'm still having a hard time placing what kind of team this year's squad is going to be. I think it's a fair assessment to say they will go as far as Marshall Moses can lead them, as he leads the team in points and rebounds after the first 14 games. Undersized for a post player (even by collegiate standards), Marshall has learned to use his superior strength and touch to get better each year he's played for the Cowboys. If he can continue to dominate the paint and knock down the 8-12 footers in conference play, Oklahoma State could have a better-than-expected year. Realistically speaking, however, I think it's just going to be too hard to replace James Anderson and the Cowboys will hover around .500 during conference play, which would give them a record of 20-10 going into the Big 12 Tournament.

Looking at other players on the roster, J.P. Olukemi continues to get stronger with the rock and should develop into a good player in just his sophomore season. I could see him bumping his PPG up to 11 or 11.2 (currently he sits at 9.7) as teams will be more likely to let him beat them than they will Keiton or Marshall.

Keiton Page isn't shooting the rock very well right now, and that will need to improve quickly if the Pokes want to do better than 8-8. He's averaging just under 15 ppg right now, but only shooting 34% from behind the arc. A shooter with his range and touch needs to be at least over 40%, and I'd like to see Keiton get to 42-43%.

Matt Pilgrim, Ray Penn and Darrell Williams are wildcards. At times, flashes of brilliance and great skill. At others, invisible on the court. Frustrating to say the least, but Coach Ford and his staff will do everything they can to get the guys to give 100% every game, and good things should happen.

I think the 2010-2011 Cowboys have a couple of surprises in them, if they can put it all together, stay healthy, and catch a break or two. I think the Big 12 is going to be the definition of the Haves and Have Nots this season, as I expect the 4 teams with the best conference record to have a combined record of 51-13 while the 4 teams with the worst conference record to mirror that record exactly, finishing a combined 13-51.

Taking a look at the schedule, here's my prediction on each game. I'll follow that up with my predicted order of finish for the Big 12 after the last tournament game in mid-March. I am placing the ranking a team currently holds as of this post.

1/8 vs. #17 Kansas State - L

1/12 @ #16 Texas A&M - L

1/15 @ Colorado - W

1/19 vs. Iowa State - W

1/22 @ Baylor - L

1/26 vs. #12 Texas - W

1/29 @ Texas Tech - L

2/2 vs. #8 Missouri - L

2/5 vs. Oklahoma - W

2/12 @ Nebraska - W

2/16 @ #12 Texas - L

2/19 vs. #16 Texas A&M - W

2/21 @ #3 Kansas - L

2/26 vs. Texas Tech - W

3/1 vs. Baylor - L

3/5 @ Oklahoma - W

Conference record.... 8-8.

Order of predicted finish (with record)

#1 Kansas... 14-2

#2 Missouri... 14-2

#3 Kansas State... 12-4

#4 Texas A&M... 11-5

#5 Baylor... 11-5

#6 Texas... 9-7

#7 Oklahoma State... 8-8

#8 Iowa State... 5-11

#9 Colorado... 4-12

#10 Texas Tech... 4-12

#11 Oklahoma... 3-13

#12 Nebraska... 2-14

Big 12 Regular Season Champion... Kansas

Big 12 Tournament games:

First Round

#5 Baylor vs. #12 Nebraska (Baylor)

#6 Texas vs. #11 Oklahoma (Texas)

#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Texas Tech (Oklahoma State)

#8 Iowa State vs. #9 Colorado (Colorado)

Second Round

#1 Kansas vs. #9 Colorado (Kansas)

#2 Missouri vs. #7 Oklahoma State (Missouri)

#3 Kansas State vs. #6 Texas (Texas)

#4 Texas A&M vs. #5 Baylor (Texas A&M)

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas vs. #4 Texas A&M (Kansas)

#2 Missouri vs. #6 Texas (Missouri)

Championship Round

#1 Kansas vs. #2 Missouri (Missouri)

Big 12 Tournament Champion... Missouri

I'll do my best to post after each game with my thoughts and to hold myself accountable for these predictions ;)

Here's hoping that I have plenty of crow to eat in March!

GO POKES!!